Spell Casting Probabilities, including Skaven IF & misscasts.

Below are the probabilities of rolling the given number or higher when casting/displling a spell. It does account for MISCASTS, for instance, if a roll of 7 included two or more 1's then it went into the MISCASTS rather than 7 or lower.

The probabilities for IF (normal and Skaven) are inclusive with the successful rolls as they are, in fact, successful rolls for each number. So please do not add the chance for a IF to the chance to roll a number or higher.

Also, please note that these number apply for both casting and dispelling since you can miscast/IF for each. The only difference is casting you have to rolling equal to or greater than the spell level and dispelling you have to roll equal to or greater than the roll made by your opponent (or the power of the bound spell) so the only difference is the number you're shooting for.

Spell Value Probabilities (X-axis: Value, Y-axis: Probability of Success)


Miscast and IFs (X-axis: # of Power Dice, Y-Axis: Probability)



1D6
NORMAL IF: 00.000000%
SKAVEN IF: 00.000000%
MISCAST: 00.000000%
01: 100.000000%
02: 83.333333%
03: 66.666667%
04: 50.000000%
05: 33.333333%
06: 16.666667%

2D6
NORMAL IF: 02.777778%
SKAVEN IF: 00.000000%
MISCAST: 02.777778%
03: 97.222222%
04: 91.666667%
05: 83.333333%
06: 72.222222%
07: 58.333333%
08: 41.666667%
09: 27.777778%
10: 16.666667%
11: 08.333333%
12: 02.777778%

3D6
NORMAL IF: 07.407407%
SKAVEN IF: 09.722222%
MISCAST: 07.407407%
05: 92.592593%
06: 91.203704%
07: 87.962963%
08: 82.407407%
09: 74.074074%
10: 62.500000%
11: 50.000000%
12: 37.500000%
13: 25.925926%
14: 16.203704%
15: 09.259259%
16: 04.629630%
17: 01.851852%
18: 00.462963%

4D6
NORMAL IF: 12.731481%
SKAVEN IF: 09.876543%
MISCAST: 13.194444%
07: 86.805556%
08: 86.496914%
09: 85.493827%
10: 83.333333%
11: 79.475309%
12: 73.302469%
13: 65.046296%
14: 55.169753%
15: 44.367284%
16: 33.564815%
17: 23.919753%
18: 15.895062%
19: 09.722222%
20: 05.401235%
21: 02.700617%
22: 01.157407%
23: 00.385802%
24: 00.077160%

5D6
NORMAL IF: 17.824074%
SKAVEN IF: 02.700617%
MISCAST: 19.624486%
09: 80.375514%
10: 80.311214%
11: 80.041152%
12: 79.333848%
13: 77.854938%
14: 75.154321%
15: 70.910494%
16: 64.981996%
17: 57.458848%
18: 48.713992%
19: 39.454733%
20: 30.388374%
21: 22.145062%
22: 15.200617%
23: 09.799383%
24: 05.877058%
25: 03.240741%
26: 01.620370%
27: 00.720165%
28: 00.270062%
29: 00.077160%
30: 00.012860%

6D6
NORMAL IF: 22.100051%
SKAVEN IF: 00.205761%
MISCAST: 26.322445%
11: 73.677555%
12: 73.664695%
13: 73.598251%
14: 73.392490%
15: 72.897377%
16: 71.877143%
17: 70.051012%
18: 67.144633%
19: 62.952246%
20: 57.409551%
21: 50.677298%
22: 43.106996%
23: 35.185185%
24: 27.456276%
25: 20.423954%
26: 14.431156%
27: 09.647205%
28: 06.076389%
29: 03.587963%
30: 01.967593%
31: 00.990226%
32: 00.450103%
33: 00.180041%
34: 00.060014%
35: 00.015003%
36: 00.002143%

7D6
NORMAL IF: 25.278635%
SKAVEN IF: 00.002501
MISCAST: 33.020405%
13: 66.979595%
14: 66.977095%
15: 66.961734%
16: 66.906722%
17: 66.756687%
18: 66.411608%
19: 65.721451%
20: 64.493670%
21: 62.515718%
22: 59.594693%
23: 55.616284%
24: 50.587634%
25: 44.658779%
26: 38.117284%
27: 31.350737%
28: 24.771734%
29: 18.750000%
30: 13.558813%
31: 09.342850%
32: 06.114612%
33: 03.786580%
34: 02.208719%
35: 01.205990%
36: 00.610497%
37: 00.282922%
38: 00.117884%
39: 00.042867%
40: 00.012860%
41: 00.002858%
42: 00.000357%

8D6
NORMAL IF: 27.302014%
SKAVEN IF: 00.000000
MISCAST: 39.532310%
15: 60.467690%
16: 60.467214%
17: 60.463820%
18: 60.450008%
19: 60.407855%
20: 60.300688%
21: 60.064324%
22: 59.600885%
23: 58.778554%
24: 57.441106%
25: 55.431420%
26: 52.623635%
27: 48.957321%
28: 44.465818%
29: 39.289635%
30: 33.664540%
31: 27.889410%
32: 22.280986%
33: 17.124748%
34: 12.633245%
35: 08.925254%
36: 06.024591%
37: 03.875291%
38: 02.367803%
39: 01.368765%
40: 00.744813%
41: 00.378837%
42: 00.178315%
43: 00.076625%
44: 00.029471%
45: 00.009824%
46: 00.002679%
47: 00.000536%
48: 00.000060%

My gods, there's just no stopping you today Sebrent! Looking at it, really it's not worth 4 dice to go for IF considering the miscast increase. You learn something new everyday!

MUTATE: You've got a Doomwheel now! Congratulations! No wonder you've posted all of these calculations, a final push to glory!

If you're hoping for an IF, then you can look at it that way ... but when casting a spell that requires 13+ to cast, you may want to look at the % chance to roll 13 or higher with 3d6 and then with 4d6.

Wait... I have a doomwheel now?! Huzzah!!! I didn't even realize it!

You...are...my...hero! Thank you so much! It even includes the chance of 'higher' and miscasts! Truly a work of art that should be immortalized in our records. Stab?

Anyway great work and congratulations on the doomwheel. (Ande here I was happy this morning to realize I made stormvermin... whats that, another 1995 posts? )

alright nice stats Sebrent! thanks alot, this gives a good view on the chances you get when rolling dice. Helps alot!


grats on the doomwheel too

You finished what I started!
(see: Chances of roling 13, including misscast factor &
Dice throwing percentages, enhance your succes rate)

I got one word for you, Sebrent;
Sweet!!

The short version of the above numbers should be in a (small?) article in the Gazette about Skaven Magic if you ask me. A tactical analasys of our magical arsenal with the chances for IF & misscasts in it and the 'best' tactical (optimal) number of dices to throw in some situations. Someone like Venomclaw should write it.... right? RIGHT!

Mik


P.S: My hand-made calculations were correct!! Who would have thought! (not me )

Moved to warroom, stabbed & edited title slightly.
once again; ex-ce-lent stuff!

oh..and about that Doomwheel... next stop: Screaming bell?


This post has been edited by Deathmaster Mik on Apr 18 2007, 08:57 AM

Lolz, thanks guys. I'm happy to see Mik likes crunching the numbers too Maybe since we have that in common he won't assassinate me

I'm just providing links to all the calculations I do in the forum in my signature. I figure since I post on average once a day that that makes them pretty easy to find.

Sorry to double-post ... you can take a cookie away from me ... but wanted to refresh this so I could inform you guys that I have added the probabilities for normal IFs now as well. Enjoy!

This is seriously great!

I have statistics programs as well with which to generate numbers like this, but I never have the time or the motivation to do this. Which is kinda unhandy when you're playing warhammer, going to cast plague and then wondering how many dice to toss. Now I know I have to stick to 3 . A one in 10 chance isn't too shabby.

Cheers,
Bodacious.

Lol, glad you enjoy it.

With plague I'd say go with 4D6 though ... roughly the same chance of IF and 65% chance of success as opposed to the 25.9% chance with 3D6

Very useful! I should take it into account when using my Warlock Engineers.

This show why 3D6 is the best dice throw for skaven magic. I use 3 dice it for everything except Plague and usually get several IF per battle.

It has been a while, but I have updated my casting probabilities post with two graphs. Take a look at the first post now Now you "pretty-picture-lovers" can enjoy my numbers as well, lol.

O.K. that was truly SICK! Sebrent, you are THE Mad Architect of rat math!! Hats off man!